Here’s who’s taking the lead in the Dutch national elections

The polls are extremely tight, and no less than four contenders still have a decent chance to come out on top after today’s general elections in the Netherlands. 

These elections are going to be historic as they will produce another Prime Minister who isn’t Mark Rutte. But who will win the Dutch elections?

For weeks the VVD (right-wing liberal), first led by Mark Rutte but now spearheaded by Dilan Yeşilgöz, was in a tight race to emerge as the biggest Dutch party alongside the new political party, NSC, led by Pieter Omzigt. 

Both were closely followed by Frans Timmermans, leading the combined list of PvdA/GreenLeft (green left party and labour party) and somewhat trailing was the PVV (right-wing anti-Islam), of which Geert Wilders (yes, that guy) is the sole member.

Wilders surprisingly popular in the polls

However, in the past weeks, Wilders has been surging in the polls, with some polls even putting him and his party down as the frontrunners. 

You may be wondering how a notorious politician could be so popular. 

Firstly, there were some favourable debate performances where he spoke with a milder voice.

Secondly, Yeşilgöz from the VVD signalled that they weren’t completely against a coalition with Wilders (as was nearly always the case with Rutte.) 

This was seen as a tactical blunder by the VVD, as it now meant that a vote for Wilders wasn’t useless. 

As a result, there is a realistic possibility that he will end up in a right-wing coalition government. 

This all has spurred him onwards and has him projected as possibly the largest party in the Netherlands:

Polls are not election results

Of course, polls are not official results by any means. There are margins of error which are quite significant. 

In fact, a difference of a few percent more or less in the actual results is quite common. 

There’s still a chance that we have a VVD leader (again)

There are also other polls which still indicate that the VVD is on top. 

Even if Wilders’ PVV becomes the biggest party, it’s by no means decided that he will become Prime Minister. 

He would first have to form a coalition with other willing parties and then scheme his way to the PM seat in the coalition negotiations. 

Yeşilgöz, in a slight panic, is already backtracking on her willingness to team up with Wilders. 

But still, many people are shocked by the prospect of the anti-Islamic Wilders getting to the top position.

Who else is projected to win the Dutch elections?

It’s not all Wilders, however. The Netherlands may see any of the following party leaders come out on top tonight. 

Frans Timmermans of GL/PvdA is also gaining more popularity, according to the polls.

He served as the Executive Vice President of the European Commission, overseeing the European Green Deal. 

He was a member of the PvdA, the Dutch Labour Party and minister of Foreign Affairs from 2012 to 2014. The abbreviation of “GL/PvdA” refers to the political alliance of GroenLinks (GL), a left-wing environmental party, and the PvdA.

READ MORE | Elections are coming up! Here’s what Dutch parties think about internationals in the Netherlands 

Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius is a Dutch politician of Turkish-Kurdish descent and has replaced Mark Rutte as the frontrunner for the VVD. 

She was the minister of Justice in the last cabinet. Yeşilgöz would be the first woman and prime minister of the Netherlands of non-Dutch descent.

The popular parliamentarian Pieter Omtzigt and his new NSC party have seen a slight dip in the recent polls and are trailing behind somewhat now.

However, there’s still a statistical chance that he will end up on top. He’s all about reinvigorating the country’s governing structures but has quite a conservative agenda and wants to limit the number of migrants coming to the Netherlands.

When will we know the results of the Dutch elections?

The voting stations close at 9 PM. Immediately afterwards, a fairly accurate exit poll is presented.

But with the polls being this tight, we may have to wait until Thursday morning before we can accurately say who won and lost this election. 

In any case, it will take many months before a coalition government is formed, and we know for certain who will be stepping in Mark Rutte’s shoes.

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